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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 15/03/21
- SPI200 (Mar) overnight futures down 3 pts to 6767
- SP500 up 4.00 pts to 3943.34
- NASDAQ Composite down 78.81 pts to 13319.86
- Dow Jones up 293.05 pts to 32,778.64
- FTSE100 up 24.51 pts to 6761.47
- DAX30 down 67.00 pts to 14502.39
- GOLD futures US session (April) up $3.20 to $1725.80 an ounce
- COPPER futures US session (Comex May) up $0.0150 to $4.1540 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex April) down $0.41 to $65.61 a barrel
- CRB Index down 0.75 pts to 193.79
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7764
- EURUSD trading at 1.1953
- GBPUSD trading at 1.3924
- USDJPY trading at 109.0300
- USD Index US Session (ICE Mar) up 0.249 to 91.667
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US indexes ended the session mixed as the DOW pushed to new highs while the Nasdaq moved lower. US bond yields edged higher into the weekend which helped to curb the recent rally and take some heat out of the action to end the week. Markets will be awash with more dollars as stimulus cheques are set to hit retail bank accounts with the first round being sent out over the weekend. The rotation from growth to value continues as the DOW well out paced SP500 which was dragged down by tech. The DOW made new all time highs everyday last week so many would be expecting the theme to continue although the fall in bonds may cap the enthusiasm. Traders will be watching for clues from the Fed Reserve later this week for direction on bonds and what they may plan to do with rising yields and whether they see the labour market continuing to drag on inflation. The DOW closed up 0.90% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.10% and the Nasdaq closed down 0.59% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes took a breather as bond prices fell and yields rose. Traders were happy to take some risk off the table into the weekend as bonds pushed down to retest lows and struggle to gain any traction. The tech sector saw the biggest fall in Europe while auto makers and miners also lost ground.
The USD Index started to move higher early in the Asian session and continued through European trade before sellers jumped in at the US open. Bulls will be watching to see if the Dollar gets more interest on the open today and can hold a higher low around current levels at 91.600. If it does hold then expect to see another squeeze higher and bonds to be moving lower. The EURUSD moved lower to take out the anchor at 1.1930 to the recent move up which puts a move down to test lows on traders radar. If the dollar strength continues today, then we expect to see highs at 1.1987 hold and price to build a lower high below the level to further squeeze out some buyers on a push lower through 1.1910. The GBPUSD fell off its perch after sellers dived into the action around 1.4000 as expected….but not before a flush higher to clear out some stop losses above 1.4000. The move down cleared out a lot of recent buyers so we will be watching to see if sellers can keep the pressure on or not…will largely depend on the USD action in Asian trade. The AUDUSD is showing some negative action also as buyers were happy to lock in some recent gains. This is not a good sign for the risk on trade so we will be watching for price to hold below 0.7800 and move lower. Of course, if the DOW powers into new highs again tonight then bears may be more cautious. Either way a major lower high could be set to hold and will be confirmed on a break down below 0.7725. The USDJPY ran higher along with the USD in Asian and European trade and then took a breather into the US close. The action paused into previous highs around 109.200 but is consolidating the gains which suggests traders are ready for another run higher today and expect more strength into the USD.
SPOT GOLD was under fire during the European session as the Dollar rallied but was quick to bounce back much to bears surprise. Price action looks choppy but wants to hold the recent gains although any sign of more dollar strength will weigh on the action. The key minor level will be around 1728 which will come into play today. If the level holds, expect a spike lower. If it breaks then a push up to 1740 is on the cards. Crude Oil was more or less range bound into the US close as support held a few tests around 65.40 but was also capped at 66.23. We are expecting to see a flush of support but for buyers to then hold the trend up from 63.20 as vaccine rollouts accelerate and economies recover. Copper held up well under the USD pressure and even rallied into the US close to end on session highs. Buyers brushed aside earlier weakness to hold a key higher low around 4.0675. Expect that the action will lead to higher prices with the 4.1715 level to come into play today. Price is extended in the short term but the action is bullish as higher lows hold and buyers soak up any selling pressure.
Cryptocurrencies were generally contained into the US close but had a very good weekend which sets the stage for a strong open today. Bitcoin led the charge with a push up through $60K and is currently trading at $60226.3 down 2.25%. Ethereum is at $1877.42 down 2.91% and Ripple is at $0.44786 down 3.49%.
The ASX200 moved up from the open Friday and managed to hold the gains into the close in what was a pretty uneventful session compared to earlier in the week. The index ended the day up 52.9 points to 6766.8 will all sectors bar gold ending with gains. The biggest movers to support the action were in IT, Metals and Mining and Resources. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 917 to 431 and 323 ended unchanged. It will be interesting to see how miners go today and whether a higher USD will weigh on the action.
The ASX200 is expected to open flat as the SPI200 ended the overnight session about where it started.
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ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks 10:15am
CNY Industrial Production and Retail Sales 1pm
EUR Eurogroup Meetings All Day
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 11:30pm
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SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
