–
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 22/03/21
- SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures down 15 pts to 6661
- SP500 down 2.36 pts to 3913.10
- NASDAQ Composite up 99.07 pts to 13215.24
- Dow Jones down 234.33 pts to 32,627.97
- FTSE100 down 70.97 pts to 6708.71
- DAX30 down 154.52 pts to 14621.00
- GOLD futures US session (April) up $11.40 to $1743.90 an ounce
- COPPER futures US session (Comex May) down $0.0055 to $4.1025 a pound
- OIL futures US Session (Nymex April) up $1.42 to $61.42 a barrel
- CRB Index up 1.65 pts to 188.79
- AUDUSD trading at 0.7742
- EURUSD trading at 1.1904
- GBPUSD trading at 1.3872
- USDJPY trading at 108.8800
- USD Index US Session (ICE Mar) up 0.088 to 91.958
–
US indexes struggled all session to gain any traction as buyers were happy to remain on the sidelines for now. Sellers are starting to put more pressure on the Nasdaq to push price back down off the 13300 zone as traders rotate out of tech on expectations of higher interest rates down the track. The DOW is seeing some heat also coming out of the action after a near 3000 point rally with little correction. Banks came under pressure after the Fed Reserve said that they will not extend a temporary capital buffer relief put in place to ease pandemic-driven stress in the funding market. This means that banks will have to hold more cash on hand which will lead to less available lending for retail and companies down the track. The DOW closed down 0.71% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.06% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.76% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes ended the session lower as France imposed fresh regional lockdowns to curb the spread of the coronavirus amid concern over the pace of the vaccine rollout. The lockdown will take a toll on economic activity and hit Frances economic outlook for the start of 2021. Banks came under pressure as Britain also said that they will have to slow the vaccine rollout next month due to a supply crunch thanks to a delay in shipments.
The USD Index continues to see a battle between the bulls and bears as yields again pressure to the upside and look set to rally again pushing bond prices lower. Traders are still trying to work out whether there will be a forced move by the Fed to lift rates and therefore support the USD or whether the Fed stand their ground leaving the USD to be devalued. The bond market will struggle to find buyers at continued low rates and there may be a wave of bond sellers on the sidelines ready to exit which will leave the Fed with two choices….buy everything to keep rates low or raise rates to stem the selling pressure. The EURUSD fell away from the 1.1990 area and is pressuring into lows around 1.1870. Sellers are in control at this stage and may be looking to a break down in anticipation that the USD may continue to rally today. Price is being held down at 1.1936 and will need to get back down through 1.1880 for a test towards the 1.1835 area. If 1.1880 holds then we expect to see more range bound action. The GBPUSD also found some selling pressure as the Dollar rallied and a slow vaccine rollout weighed on the currency. Price is being held down at 1.3952 and is set to extend into 1.3800. If price holds above 1.3831 today, then we may see a grind back up and squeeze of late sellers. The AUDUSD also edged its way lower but found some buyers willing to soak up the selling pressure around 0.7715. Buyers are still banking on the USD coming under pressure and risk on into share markets from the flood of stimulus. The major high at 0.7835 will bring in some more longer term sellers into the action for a move back down through 0.7700. The USDJPY continues to be capped around 109.300 as the recent uptrend comes to a halt. Price is consolidating the highs which could lead to another run up in the longer term but we do expect that a squeeze on buyers is on the cards in the short term leading to a flush lower.
SPOT GOLD pushed back above the 1740 level but lacked the conviction from buyers like the previous move up through the level. Price is still contracting and holding minor higher levels as the trend remains down so we expect to see the action heat up soon. If the dollar continues to find buyers then a move down should be expected into gold. If more traders are expecting the dollar to devalue, then Gold may finally see a trend higher that gold bugs have been expecting for a long time. Crude Oil managed to end up off lows but continued to find sellers in anticipation that demand will take a hit from the new wave of coronavirus infections across Europe. We expect that the recent break of the Daily uptrend off 66.00 may see more buyers put under pressure and forced to take some risk off the table. Copper is managing to hold its ground and soak up selling pressure into the metal. Buyers will need to hold above 4.0000 and make a move to break up through 4.1875 in the near term otherwise a bigger correction lower is on the cards. Like oil, copper is extended and may need to put some buyers back on the sidelines so traders will be watching the European virus situation closely.
Cryptocurrencies were generally contained over the weekend as prices held around the close of the US session. Bitcoin is currently trading around $57843.0 down 1.17% while Ethereum is at $1800.80 down 1.47% and Ripple is at $0.51079 down 2.31%.
The ASX200 ended the week on a sour note as the index continued to come under some intraday selling pressure. Price managed to find some early buyers to support the action after the opening push lower into the 6660 level which it has managed to defend previously in the last few days. Buyers will need to defend this level if they want to see a run at the all time highs otherwise the selling pressure will grow and see a deeper move lower. At the end of the day the index was down 37.7 points to 6708.2 with the Energy, Metals and Mining and Resources sectors leading the charge lower while Utilities and Telecom Services were the only sectors to end in the green. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 722 to 550 and 377 ended unchanged.
The ASX200 is expected to open down 10 points as the SPI200 was held down into the US close.
–
ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEDT)
EUR Current Account 8pm
EUR German Buba Monthly Report 10pm
EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks 12am
USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks 12am
USD Existing Home Sales 1am
–
SPI200 INTRADAY LEVELS TO WATCH
